Response for project 199105100: M&E Statistical Support For Li
Comment on proposed FY 2006 budget
The UW confirms its request for renewed funding in 2006 and confirms this budget is consistent with BPA's approved budget.
Accomplishments since the last review
| # of people reached in each of 3 classes (T/S/G): Teachers, Students, General public | 2004: Pearson et al. Lower Columbia River stranding studies. US Army Corps of Engineers, Anadromous Fish Evaluation Program, November 15-18, 2004, Portland, OR. Approx. 400 (G) in attendance. | |
| # of people reached in each of 3 classes (T/S/G): Teachers, Students, General public | 2004: Ploskey et al. Hydroacoustic evaluation of juvenile salmonid fish passage at Bonneville Dam. US Army Corps of Engineers, Anadromous Fish Evaluation Program, November 15-18, 2004, Portland, OR. Approx. 400 (G) in attendance. | |
| # of people reached in each of 3 classes (T/S/G): Teachers, Students, General public | 2004: Johnson et al. Hydroacoustic evaluation of fish passage and the sluiceway surface flow bypass at The Dalles Dam in 2004. US Army Corps of Engineers, Anadromous Fish Evaluation Program, November 15-18, 2004, Portland, OR. Approx. 400 (G). | |
| Provide Technical Review | 2003: Carlson et al. Review of the application of an acoustic scintillation flow meter for hydroturbine discharge estimation. For USACE, NW Division, Contact DACW57-00-D-0009-0006. Battelle, Pacific Northwest Division, Richland, WA. | |
| Provide Technical Review | 2003: Skalski, J. R. Review of “The effects of mainstem flow and water velocity on salmon and steelhead populations of the Columbia River.” Prepared for BPA, Portland, OR. | |
| Produce Plan | 2004: Skalski, J. R. Statistical synopsis for estimate project-wide fish passage efficiency, spill efficiency, corner collector efficiency, and sluiceway efficiency at Bonneville Dam in the Year 2004. Prepared for Battelle. | |
| Produce Plan | 2004: Skalski, J. R. Statistical synopsis for the 2004 fixed-location hydroacoustic investigations at The Dalles Dam. Prepared for Battelle. | |
| Produce Plan | 2004: Skalski, J. R. Input to the study plan to assess the effects of channel deepening on fish stranding in the Lower Columbia River. Prepared for Battelle, Sequim, WA. | |
| Produce Annual Report | 2003: Summarized statistical analysis and consulting performed Focused on real-time outmigration timing predictions, life-history performance measures, recovery status and trends, and guidance on design and analysis of Columbia Basin M&E studies. | |
| Produce Annual Report | 2004: Summarized statistical analysis and consulting performed. Focused on real-time outmigration timing predictions, life-history performance measures, recovery status and trends, and guidance on the design and analysis of Columbia Basin M&E studies. | |
| Produce Status Report | 2004: Published Salmon Insider newsletter on a quarterly basis in 2004. | |
| Produce Status Report | 2005: Published quarterly issues of the Salmon Insider newsletter. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Burgess et al. Evaluation of the 2003 predictions of run-timing of wild and hatchery-reared salmon and steelhead smolt to LGR, RIS, MCN, and JDA dams using Program RealTime. M&E of smolt migration in Columbia Basin, Volume XI. BPA, Portland, OR | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Burgess et al. Precision and accuracy of T/I ratio estimator of survival benefits to juvenile salmonids transported around Columbia River Basin dams. Design & analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia Basin, Vol XVIII. BPA, Portland, OR | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Johnson et al. Hydroacoustic evaluation of turbine intake J-occlusions at The Dalles Dam in 2002. Final report for USACE, Portland District. Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific Northwest Division, Richland, WA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Skalski, J. R.. Hypothetical examples of survival trends and compliance assessment. Prepared for the RME-Hydro Working Group, Portland, OR. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Stevenson et al. Telemetry investigation: Fish passage efficiency of juvenile yearling and subyearling chinook, steelhead and sockeye at Rocky Reach and Rock Island dams, 2003. Prepared for Chelan County PUD, Wenatchee, WA | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2004: Burgess et al. Evaluation of 2003 predictions of run-timing of wild and hatchery-reared salmon & steelhead smolt to LGR, RIS, MCN, & JDA dams using Program RealTime. Vol. XI in Design & Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in Columbia Basin. BPA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2004: Townsend et al. Evaluation of the 2004 predictions of run-timing of wild and hatchery-reared salmon and steelhead smolt to LGR, RIS, MCN, & JDA dams using Prog RealTime. M&E of smolt migration in the Columbia Basin. BPA (submitted). | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2004: Normandeau Associates et al. Direct effects of differential spill volumes on mortality and injury rates of juvenile salmonids at The Dalles Dam spillway, Columbia River in fall 2002 and spring 2003. USACE, Portland District, Portland, OR. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2004: Anglea et al. Survival of PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon passage through the Priest Rapids project, 2003. Grant County PUD, Ephrata, WA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Smith et al. 2004. Survival estimates for the passage of spring migrating juvenile salmonids through Snake and Columbia River dams and reservoirs, 2003. Annual Report to BPA, NMFS, NWFSC, Seattle, WA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Normandeau Associates Inc. et al. Juvenile salmonid survival in passage through modified spillbays at Bonneville Dam, Columbia River. USACE, Portland, OR. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Normandeau Associates Inc. et al. Survival/condition of chinook salmon smolts under different turbine operations at McNary Dam, Columbia River. Prepared for USACE. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Normandeau Associates Inc. et al. Estimated direct mortality and injury of juvenile salmonids in passage through The Dalles Dam spillway, Columbia River in spring & summer 2002. USACE, Portland, OR. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Normandeau Associates Inc. et al. Evaluation of smolt mortality & injury associated with passage through a modified top spill bulkhead at Wanapum Dam, Columbia River. Grant County PUD, Ephrata, WA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Robichaud et al. Survival of chinook smolts during various spill configurations at Wanapum & Priest Rapids dams, 2002. Grant County PUD, Ephrata, WA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Skalski et al. Estimation of survival of yearling chinook salmon at the Rock Island dam, pool, & project in 2002 using acoustic & PIT-tag release-recapture methods. Chelan County PUD, Wenatchee, WA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2003: Steig et al. Comparison of PIT-tagged and acoustic tagged juvenile chinook, steelhead & sockeye salmon passing Rocky Reach Dam in 2002. Chelan County PUD, Wenatchee, WA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2004: Steig et al. Comparison of acoustic & PIT-tagged tagged juvenile chinook, steelhead & sockeye salmon passing dam on the Columbia River, USA. Proceedings of Fish Telemetry Conference (in press). | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2004: Skalski et al. Estimation of Rock Island project passage survival of yearling chinook salmon smolts in 2003 using acoustic & PIT-tag release-recapture methods, Chelan County PUD, Wenatchee, WA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2004: Stevenson et al. Fish passage efficiency of juvenile yearlings & subyearling chinook, steelhead & sockeye at Rocky Reach and Rock Island Dams, 2003: Telemetry investigation. Chelan County PUD, Ephrata, WA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2004: Anglea et al. Survival of PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon passage through the Priest Rapids project, 2004. Grant County PUD, Ephrata, WA. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | 2004: Townsend et al. Arrival distributions for the Rock Island & Priest Rapids tailrace releases in the 2004 yearling summer chinook salmon survival study at Grant County PUD, Ephrata, WA. | |
| Develop RM&E Methods and Designs | 2003: Assisted RME-Hydro Group with statistical decision criteria for assessing compliance with recovery criteria for smolt survival through the hydrosystem. | |
| Develop RM&E Methods and Designs | 2003: Assisted USACE in evaluating alternatives for a turbine survival study at McNary Dam to assess the effects of operating levels on smolt passage survival. Compared costs of conducting radio- versus PIT-tag release-recapture methods. | |
| Develop RM&E Methods and Designs | 2003: Assisted USACE, USGS, and NOAA Fisheries in evaluating alternative summer spill study proposals for 2004. | |
| Develop RM&E Methods and Designs | 2004: Assisted the USACE, USGS, and NOAA Fisheries in evaluating alternative summer spill study proposals for 2004. | |
| Develop RM&E Methods and Designs | 2004: Assisted the USACE in the design of a fall chinook transportation evaluation study at Lower Granite Dam in 2005. | |
| Develop RM&E Methods and Designs | 2004: Assisted the Mid-Columbia PUDs, tribes, and agencies in designing and implementing web pages on DART for monitoring salmonid smolt and adult migration timing in Mid-Columbia Basin and associated tributaries. | |
| Develop RM&E Methods and Designs | 2004: Assisted the Department of Energy and Grant County PUD in designing a smolt survival study of existing and new generation turbines for winter 2005. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | 2003: Provided real-time predictions of outmigration timing for 15 FPC passage-indexed and 34 PIT-tagged stocks of subyearling and yearling chinook salmon, sockeye salmon, coho salmon, and steelhead trout smolts. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | 2003: Summarized and posted historical to 2003 information on smolt survivals and travel times, based on PIT-tag data from 11 hatcheries and traps, at http://www.cbr.washington.edu/pitSurv/. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | 2003: Summarized adult escapement data from 37 streams and rivers and posted on DART with associated with NOAA Fisheries interim recovery goals for public access. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | 2004: Provided real-time predictions of outmigration timing for 20 FPC passage-indexed and 32 PIT-tagged stocks of subyearling and yearling chinook salmon, sockeye salmon, coho salmon, and steelhead trout smolts. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | 2004: Summarized and posted historical to 2004 information on smolt survivals and travel times, based on PIT-tag data from 11 hatcheries and traps, at http://www.cbr.washington.edu/pitSurv/. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | 2004: Summarized adult escapement data from 26 streams and rivers have been summarized and posted on DART with associated NOAA Fisheries interim recovery goals for public access. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | 2004: Provided online data analysis and plots of SARs for CWT hatchery salmon from Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. The website includes CWT returns from 90 hatcheries across the Northwest for all available years with annual updates of analyses. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | 2005: Provide real-time predictions of outmigration timing for 20 FPC passage-indexed and 32 PIT-tagged stocks of subyearling and yearling chinook salmon, sockeye salmon, coho salmon, and steelhead trout smolts. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | 2003: A total of 188 hours of assistance provided to USACE, USGS, NOAA Fisheries, and Chelan County PUD to evaluate adult and juvenile salmoni survival in the Columbia Basin. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | 2004: A total of 208 hours of assistance provided to USACE and WDFW to evaluate adult and juvenile salmonid survival in the Columbia Basin. |
This project was initiated in 1991 in response to the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and the subsequent 1994 Fish and Wildlife Program (FWP) call for regional analytical methods for monitoring and evaluation. This project supports the need for the "best available" scientific information accessible to the BPA, fisheries community, decision-makers, and public by analyzing historical tagging data to investigate smolt outmigration dynamics, salmonid life histories and productivity, and providing real-time analysis to monitor outmigration timing for use in water management and fish operations of the hydrosystem. This project provides real-time analyses of PIT-tag data and smolt passage indices to predict outmigration timing at 8 Snake and Columbia River dam sites, and travel time information and barging predictions in the Snake River Basin. Daily updates are provided for salmon and steelhead from April through September of each year. These predictions and supporting information can be retrieved and independently analyzed using interactive software on the internet http://www.cbr.washington.edu/rt/rt.html). The second element of this project provides value-added analyses of historical tagging data by testing hypotheses, estimating parameters, and investigating interrelationships without the tremendous costs of additional field studies. Currrently, this project is analyzing and compiling a myriad of performance measures asociated with mainstem hydro passage. Finally, this project provides statistical assistance to the BPA and the NW fisheries community on an as-needed basis. These efforts are used to provide BPA with independent assessment capabilities and provide technology transfer to regional investigators.
FY 2006 goals and anticipated accomplishments
| Produce Annual Report | Produce annual report summarizing statistical analysis and consulting activities performed in 2006. | |
| Produce Status Report | Publish quarterly issues of Salmon Insider newsletter. | |
| Produce/Submit Scientific Findings Report | Submit a report evaluating the accuracy of the RealTime predictions for all stocks at the end of the 2006 migration season. | |
| Develop RM&E Methods and Designs | Assist the USACE, USGS, NOAA Fisheries, and other state and Tribal entities in evaluating adult and juvenile salmonid survival in the Columbia Basin. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | Update website daily with predictions of smolt outmigration timing for PIT-tag stocks and passage indices in 2006. Include daily predictions of “percent passage to date," “date to specified percentiles," and raw counts for each monitored stock. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | Update historical characterization of performance standards. Extract smolt and adult performance standards and assorted water quality and flow target information for compilation and comparison with recovery standards. | |
| Analyze/Interpret Data | Create virtual report on status and trends of hydrosystem performance measures and progress towards salmonid recovery and BiOP compliance. Produce an interactive summary of monitoring data, permitting assess to information from multiple perspectives. |
Numerous performance measures and recovery goals have been established (i.e., FWP, BiOp on Remand, RM&E Hydro Working Group) to monitor the recovery of the Columbia Basin system. Despite all the discussions of recovery and performance measures, no readily accessible public source of information exists. In preparation for progress reports and comprehensive evaluations in 2007 and 2010, this project will be compiling and summarizing the myriad of endpoints identified in recovery documents. This project will also help people interpret this volume of information by developing interactive virtual reports. The virtual reports will allow uses to assess the recovery information from multiple perspectives, such as fish stock, hydroproject, performance measure, subbasin, or any combination thereof. The software will allow users to examine the data from their own perspective, conduct their own analyses, and draw conclusions about status, trends, and compliance. Numerous additional performance measures will be added to historical databases including the following: 1. SARS from PIT-tag data. 2. T/I ratios from PIT-tag data. 3. Estimates of delayed transport effects from PIT-tag data. 4. Hydrosystem-wide smolt survival estimates from PIT-tag data. 5. Adult upriver survival estimates from both PIT- and radio-tag data. 6. Adult harvest numbers by stock and year. 7. River km of completed restoration in watershed by year. 8. Hectares of completed restoration in the estuary by year. Data will be compiled, documented, and estimates extracted for all available stocks and/or locations annually. The goal of the project is to provide a comprehensive yet user-friendly resource to examine performance measures and monitor efforts toward recovery.
Subbasin planning
How is this project consistent with subbasin plans?
Work not related to a subbasin plan. This project is consistent with and implements the Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation efforts from the Final UPA for the FCRPS Biological Opinion Remand, section IV (pages 88-103) and with the Council’s scientific principles of ecological management (i.e., Principle 7). This program strives to understand the dynamics of the aquatic systems and anthropogenic effects by analyzing historical tagging data and providing real-time access to the monitoring data to the public, fisheries managers, and the TMT. Under the Hydrosystem Passage and Operations section of the CRBFWP, this program has made the following contributions: (a) Developed, measured, and monitored juvenile fish passage. (b) Monitored and evaluated adult passage, and provided technical support to the installing adult PIT-tag counters. (c) Evaluated the effects of flow and spill strategies on outmigration success. (d) Assist the BPA in preparing an annual report on flow augmentation. (e) Provided mitigation information and specialized data summaries to the TMT. (f) Investigated biological measures of mainstem operations. (g) Investigated key uncertainties associated with mainstem migration and transportation. Under the Council’s Ocean Condition section, this program has made the following coordinated contributions: (a) Improved understanding of conditions salmon face in the ocean. (b) Identified factors critical to ocean survival. (c) Helped distinguish ocean effects from other effects on adult returns. (d) Distinguished the effects of ocean-related mortality from that caused in the freshwater part of the life cycle. Equally important, this program has contributed to the Council’s call for “Research, monitoring and evaluation” in all three critical areas they have identified: (a) Identify and resolve key uncertainties. (b) Monitor and evaluate. (c) Make information readily available.
How do goals match subbasin plan priorities?
This project accomplishes priority work identified by the FCRPS Biological Opinion Remand (Remand), Section IV (pages 88-103) as critical to reaching the long- and short-term targets listed in the 2005-2007 Implementation Plan for the FCRPS ESA Updated Proposed Action (Section V.A., pages 39-40). Under RM&E Strategy 1 (Status Monitoring) (pg. 88, Remand), “regional monitoring of status information such as adult and juvenile fish abundance, distribution, and survival, or environmental conditions that have been identified as key measures of fish performance, is needed for an effective performance based approach.” Program RealTime specifically addresses Substrategy 1.3 (hydrosystem corridor monitoring) to “monitor wild Snake River spring/summer Chinook and salmon smolt migrations”, “monitor … migration timing … of Snake River fall Chinook”, and “provide in-season statistical support, real-time run predictions, and annual review of run-timing predictions” (pg. 90, Remand). In addition, survivals and travel times from release site to Bonneville Dam for a number of species & stock are estimated and posted on DART. The objective of RM&E Strategy 2 (Action Effectiveness Monitor. & Research) is to assess the effects of hydrosystem and non-hydrosystem actions on fish production, survival, fish condition, and habitat condition in a quantitatively rigorous approach. Numerous analyses have been completed by this project to address items under Substrategy 2.1 (hydrosystem), including effectiveness of transportation, and survival of juveniles salmonids through new generation turbines at Bonneville and Wanapum Dams. Finally, RM&E Strategy 3 identifies areas of uncertainty in biological assessments of survival conditions and needed survival improvements for ESA listed populations. Analyses from this project have addressed areas such as delayed differential mortality of transported smolts (D) and the extent of extra mortality (pg. 100, Remand), and ocean survival relationships.