Comment on proposed FY 2006 budget

The UW confirms its request for renewed funding in 2006 and confirms this budget is consistent with BPA's approved budget.

Accomplishments since the last review

The ongoing mission of Project 1989-107-00, since its inception in 1989, has been the development of statistical tools for analyzing fisheries tagging data in the most precise and appropriate manner possible, and providing statistical guidance on the best ways to design large-scale tagging studies. The need for this mission, which supports the goals of the Columbia River Basin Fish and Wildlife Program (FWP) and FCRPS Biological Opinion (BiOp), is continuing, as the technologies for conducting fish tagging studies improve. In the last decade, fisheries biologists have seen the evolution from freeze-brands and coded wire tags (CWT) to passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, balloon-tags, radiotelemetry, and now, acoustic-tags. With each advance, the technology holds the promise of more detailed and precise information. However, the methodology for analyzing and interpreting the data concurrently becomes more complex as the tagging techniques become more sophisticated. The goal of the project is to develop the analytical tools in parallel with the technical advances in tagging studies, so that maximum information can be extracted on a timely basis. Associated with this mission is the transfer of these analytical capabilities to the field investigators to assure consistency and the highest levels of design and analysis throughout the fisheries community. Consequently, the project develops state-of-the-art statistical software to estimate smolt inriver survival, ocean survival, adult upriver survival, delayed mortality effects, and SARs from PIT-tag, radiotelemetry, and acoustic-tag studies. To this end, statistical programs SURPH, PitPro, USER, and SampleSize were developed. A new program ROSTER, capable of analyzing PIT-tag, life-cycle information, will be available later this year.

FY 2006 goals and anticipated accomplishments

Tagging studies within the Columbia Basin are extensive, with tens of millions of CWT, over a million PIT-tags, tens of thousands of radio-tags, and thousands of acoustic-tags used annually to obtain life-history information on salmonid stocks. Yet this FWP project is the only project dedicated to providing statistical support for the design and analysis of these tagging studies. This project helps assure cost-effective study design, valid analysis of the data, and proper interpretation of results to best manage water and salmonid resources. Because evaluation of mitigation projects and system recovery depends on performance measures from tagging studies, reliable study designs and data analyses are crucial to the Fish and Wildlife Program and FCRPS BiOp on Remand. The project mission is to ensure that the salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia Basin have the most up-to-date, accurate and valid statistical analyses. Furthermore, to assure that the tagging studies conducted are cost-effective and capable of delivering the desired information in the most effective and timely manner possible to fisheries managers. The mission in 2006 includes delivering statistical models to analyze PIT-tag, life-history data and adult radiotelemetry data crucial to extracting RM&E performance measures. The new statistical models will be capable of estimating not only juvenile inriver survival, but also ocean survival (i.e., Bonneville to Bonneville), adult upriver survival, fallback rates, transportation-inriver ratios, and delayed mortality (i.e., D), along with associated error variances. These new statistical models will provide the most comprehensive analysis of tagging data to date in preparation for assessing recovery and compliance with Fish and Wildlife Program goals.

Subbasin planning

How is this project consistent with subbasin plans?

Work not related to a subbasin plan. This project is consistent with FWP Strategy 6, hydrosystem passage and operations, by facilitating Strategy 9, research, monitoring, and evaluation. This project is consistent with and implements the Research, Monitoring, and Evaluation efforts from the Final UPA for the FCRPS Biological Opinion Remand, Section IV (pages 88-103). Tasks are listed below. Provides consistent application of statistical methodologies for survival estimation across all salmon life-cycle stages to assure comparable performance measures and assessment of results through time. Maximizes learning and adaptive management opportunities. Improves and maintains the ability to responsibly evaluate the success of implemented Columbia River FWP salmonid mitigation programs and dentify future mitigation options. Improves analytical capabilities to conduct research on survival processes of wild and hatchery chinook salmon and steelhead during smolt outmigration. Improves monitoring and evaluation capabilities and assist in-season river management to optimize operational and fish passage strategies to maximize survival. Extends statistical support to estimate ocean survival and in-river survival of returning adults when adult detection facilities are in place. Provides statistical guidance in implementing a river-wide adult PIT-tag detection capability. Develops statistical methods for survival estimation for all potential users and makes this information available through peer-reviewed publications, statistical software, and technology transfers to organizations such as NOAA Fisheries, the Fish Passage Center, US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Geological Survey (USGS), US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Public Utility Districts (PUDs), the Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB), and other members of the Northwest fisheries community. Provides, maintains, and improves statistical software for tag analysis and user support.

How do goals match subbasin plan priorities?

This project accomplishes priority work identified by the FCRPS Biological Opinion Remand (Remand), Section IV (pages 88-103) as critical to reaching the long- and short-term targets listed in the 2005-2007 Implementation Plan for the FCRPS ESA Updated Proposed Action (Section V.A., pages 39-40). Under “RM&E Strategy 1: Status Monitoring” (pg. 88, Remand), “regional monitoring of status information such as adult and juvenile fish abundance, distribution, and survival, or environmental conditions that have been identified as key measures of fish performance, is needed for an effective performance based approach.” The main goal of this project is to develop the analytical tools (such as SURPH) and statistical theory to effectively and accurately perform this task on a system-wide or subbasin level, within tributary or hydrosystem corridor. In that same vein, “RM&E Strategy 2: Action Effectiveness Monitoring and Research” again states that research on the effects of hydrosystem and non-hydrosystem actions require a quantitatively rigorous approach (pg. 92, Remand) with well-designed experiments and adequate replication. Programs such as SampleSize 1.3 developed by this project were designed to assist researchers in this, and must be continually adapted to appropriately fit changing conditions. Finally, RM&E Strategy 3 defines critical uncertainties “related to the assessment methods and data required to evaluate future population performance and needed survival improvements. Projects under this strategy are associated with BiOp actions that address large, systematic research needs and improvements in analytical methods required for more robust and confident assessments of population status and needed survival improvements for each ESU” (pg. 100, Remand). The tools and theory developed by this project specifically address this goal, with the intent of making analyses easier and more defensible for all researchers in the Columbia Basin.

Other comments

Project 1989-107-00 provides the financial support to sustain local expertise on the statistical theory of tag analysis at the University of Washington and make it available to the fisheries community. Ideally, each project and each investigator in the Columbia River Basin would invest in the statistical support needed for the successful completion of their study. However, this is an ideal that is rarely if ever attained. Furthermore, there is only a small pool of highly trained scientists in this specialized area of tag analysis here in the Northwest. Piecemeal and fragmented support from various agencies and organizations would be incapable of maintaining a center of expertise. This funding assures the continuity of support needed to assist organizations on an as-needed basis, as well as provides the necessary support to develop the analytical technologies needed in the foreseeable future.