Review of the All-H Analyzer (AHA)

At the Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s January 21st, 2005 request, the ISRP and ISAB reviewed the "All-H Analyzer" (AHA) model that Council staff is proposing to use as part of a larger exercise in the Fish and Wildlife Program to establish draft numerical objectives for anadromous fishes, including natural returns, hatchery escapement, and harvest at the subbasin, province, and basin levels. Subbasin Plans were recently found to be deficient in the integration of hatchery and natural production with habitat, hydro, and harvest goals for anadromous fishes.[1] A goal of the use of the AHA model in planning is to facilitate consideration of the balance of hatchery and natural production in relation to habitat actions, out-of-subbasin harvest, and hydrosystem constraints.The Council asked five general and three supplemental review questions concerning the AHA. To help the ISRP and ISAB answer these questions, lead scientists from Puget Sound’s Hatchery Scientific Review Group (HSRG) presented the model to us, explained how the model was used in Puget Sound for informing hatchery management, and described the development of the fitness equation in the model. Although appreciated and informative, the presentation raised many unanswered questions about the model’s structure and the mechanics of its use. In addition to the presentation, the AHA model itself was made available, and several reviewers explored its behavior. The ISRP&AB also reviewed the available background documentation pertaining to the model, including HSRG technical papers and some of the scientific literature that the fitness equation is based on, in particular a recent paper by ISAB ex-officio member Mike Ford (Ford. 2000. Cons. Biol. 16: 815-825). It is important to note, however, that the AHA model is still in development and much of the background material needed for review and application is NOT available. In other words, this ISRP/ISAB "review" of the AHA is essentially a review of the intentions or potential in the development and projected use of the model and not a review of the reliability or accuracy of the model itself.

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